March 20th, first day of Spring! Or is it? Spring seems to have come weeks ago, and there is no better place than the lake to see how deeply we are into the season.
Just two weeks ago we were skiing on some of the finest snow of the winter. Three days later it had all turned soft. A few days after that, all the snow on the lake had turned to slush. Yuck.
Another few days later the weather turned cold again and the top layer of slush froze. Not enough to walk on, mind you. Just enough to hold me up for a sec, then crash, I'd break through to the slushy water that lay above the good ice. Trying to take a walk was a chore. Step, crunch, step, crunch. Exhausting!
Then of course the weather warmed again, and it hasn't gone below freezing since. That top crust is gone, and all of the soft top-ice has gone back to slush. But now, just 17 days after the biggest snowstorm of the year, even most of the slush is gone. Walking on the lake is easy, and very interesting.
Three decades of watching the ice melt away has taught me many things about the process, the first of which is that it is different every year. If you scan through the articles I've written each spring, you'll see a different story each year. (Some of these are posted at northenlife.ca.)
This year the ice will be going off earlier than most, maybe even earlier than it did in 2010, which was the earliest recorded, on April 3rd. That year was the first time ever that the ice became unsafe in the month of March. This year is the second time that March ice becomes unsafe.
How do I know when to stop travelling on the ice? By watching it very carefully. Every day for the past week I've walked on the lake, observing and taking notes. Shallow areas at the edges of islands became watery. The white ice on top all turned to slush, and slowly drained through cracks in the clear ice below. The drain holes widened ever so slowly, until some were wide enough to push a ski pole through.
I've measured and marked the ski pole so I can see how thick the ice is. By measuring at the same hole each day I can see how fast it is melting. It's not surprising that it is melting very fast this year.
So far, nearly all the thinning of the ice has been the loss of the white ice and slush. The hard, clear ice hasn't melted much at all. But it won't take long for it to go, because it is only a foot thick this year. Most years it would be nearly two feet thick.
It's always a guessing game to figure out when the ice will be gone. It is very much dependant on the weather, warmth, wind, sun and rain. Given that it's been ages since the nights have cooled to below zero, and that the prediction is for more of the same, I'm guessing the ice will be out on April fool's day.
